Will Santa Claus or the Grinch Show Up This Year?
‘Tis the season for the Santa Claus Rally! This historically strong seasonal period officially kicks off today and ends on the second trading day of January.
Five Things We’re Thankful For: Fixed Income Edition
There’s no doubt the last few years have been challenging for fixed income investors. And while 2023 was supposed to be the year for bonds, fixed income returns for most …
Strong Seasonals Return After Red October
Even after a red October provided more trick than a treat for stock market investors, we continue into what has historically been one of the strongest periods for stock market …
With Inflation Falling, Why Aren’t Treasury Yields Falling As Well?
For the second month in a row, CPI showed inflationary pressures were falling at a faster pace than economists’ estimates, which is undoubtedly good news. So why haven’t treasury yields followed?
Are Rates Too High? Too Low? Just Right? Depends on Who You Ask
Much has been made of the volatility in the bond markets this year. Over the past few months, Treasury yields have frequently moved 0.20% in a day—something that hasn’t happened in decades.
6 Things to Know About Stocks and Recessions
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In the section summarizing staff projections, to the surprise of some, the staff explicitly forecasted a recession.
A Current Look at the “Fear Gauge”
Volatility has increased this month as banking sector turmoil shook investor sentiment. Sequential bank failures have elevated uncertainty over contagion risk—and with increased uncertainty comes increased fear.
Golden Cross—Not Just Another Flash in the Pan
The sharp rally in U.S. equity markets has created many skeptics, given the size and scope of the advance. As of February 2, the S&P 500 is up 8.9% year to date, marking its best start to a year since 1987.
When Doves Cry
It has been a painful week for those investors hoping for a shift toward dovish monetary policy with continuing hawkish shifts from the Fed.
Midterm Election Results Point to More Mixed Government
The main takeaway from election results currently is likely a mixed government, which we continue to view as market-friendly overall.