Volatility Is Back
Volatility has come back into the market as the narrative shifted toward a higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop. Signs of sticky inflation and a resilient economy, including a strong labor market, …
What to Watch This Earnings Season
First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with several big banks reporting this Friday, including sector bellwether JPMorgan Chase (JPM). This quarter will seem quite similar to the fourth …
IPOs as a Market Tell: What a Recent Uptick Could Mean
The initial public offering (IPO) market allows institutional investors to incorporate the macroeconomic landscape with individual corporate earnings data — and future earnings forecasts — to ascertain a share price …
Outlook for U.S. Economy Continues to Brighten
When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets …
Capital Markets: The Essence of American Capitalism
“Whether it’s originated in garages, dorm rooms, or a parent’s basement, the distinct qualities of the country’s entrepreneurial spirit persevere across sectors, and are fostered by the essence of American capitalism—our capital markets.”
Draining the Lifeblood of the Economy: The Small Business Sector
In this edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we discuss the weakness in small businesses and what that foreshadows in the markets and the economy.
Who Is Right, Federal Reserve or Financial Markets?
Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks. Who is right?
Trying to Stick the Landing: Can the Stock Market Do It?
Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question. But while this may be the most commonly asked question these days, it may not be the most important or the toughest.
Q4 Earnings Preview: Pessimism May Be Overdone
Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. As always, guidance matters more as market participants look forward. The key question is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far.
Market, Stock, and Bond Lessons Learned from 2022
We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, we have a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary.