Who Is Right, Federal Reserve or Financial Markets?
Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks. Who is right?
Trying to Stick the Landing: Can the Stock Market Do It?
Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question. But while this may be the most commonly asked question these days, it may not be the most important or the toughest.
Q4 Earnings Preview: Pessimism May Be Overdone
Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. As always, guidance matters more as market participants look forward. The key question is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far.
Market, Stock, and Bond Lessons Learned from 2022
We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, we have a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary.
The Seasonality Trends of December
December often starts slow but historically has been a strong month. There are also some potentially supportive seasonal patterns ahead.
Playbook for a Fed Pivot: Exploring Market Performance
Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate in the first half of 2023.
Low Bar for Earnings Season Brings Third Quarter Expectations Down
Corporate America has a lot working against it this earnings season. This has brought expectations for third quarter earnings growth down to achievable levels.
Pockets of Vulnerability Magnified by Monetary Policy
As Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize the commitment towards restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher.
How Much Higher Can Rates Go?
Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years.
Getting the Jobs Market Back into Balance
The economy is starting to experience a larger labor force as individuals come off the sidelines and rejoin the job market.