Outlook 2023: Finding Balance
Outlook 2023: Finding Balance examines the economy, markets, policy, and includes our economic and market forecasts for 2023.
Job Market Remains Resilient Despite Higher Rates
The economy added 263,000 jobs in November, a decrease from October but a large upside surprise highlighting the continued resilience of labor markets.
Playbook for a Fed Pivot: Exploring Market Performance
Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate in the first half of 2023.
Pockets of Vulnerability Magnified by Monetary Policy
As Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize the commitment towards restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher.
How Much Higher Can Rates Go?
Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years.
Inflation is Easing But Not Enough
Inflation remains the primary concern and for now, the Fed is willing to sacrifice economic growth to get inflation back closer to 2%.
Top Ten Housing Districts
Existing home sales in July fell over 20% from a year ago to an annualized rate of 4.81 million. Outside of the onset of the pandemic, the July sales rate was the lowest since late 2015 when the real estate market was recovering from the Great Financial Crisis.
Midyear Outlook 2022: Navigating Turbulence
We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of turbulence this year. How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022.
4 Important Takeaways from the Fed’s 0.75% Hike
The Federal Reserve concluded its two day policy meeting yesterday and announced it was raising its benchmark rate by 0.75%. Here are four observations about yesterday’s rate hike.
Looking through the Clouds
Making the case for stocks to stage a second half rally back to the prior highs requires investors to see through some heavy cloud cover.