Thoughts on Friday’s Treasury Market Rally

Financial markets tend to be relatively quiet the day after Thanksgiving but this year was a notable exception. With the news that a new COVID-19 variant—Omicron—had been discovered and is spreading quickly, prices of risk assets fell and safe-haven assets rallied on Friday.

A Peek at Peak Inflation

After an upside inflation surprise in October, it’s clear that peak inflation may still be ahead. Here, we look at five signs to watch for over the next several months that may signal that inflation may be near or at its peak. 

Transitory, or Non-Transitory, That is the Question

When does transitory inflation become non-transitory? That is the question that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to be under increasing pressure to answer after the most recent inflation data surged past economists’ expectations.

5 Observations About Economic Growth Expectations

Consensus estimates change over time. Seeing how they have been changing can also offer some depth on what’s going on behind the scenes. Today we take a look at five things we can learn from changing U.S. growth expectations.

5 Things That Might Spook Markets

With Halloween over the weekend, what better to write about this week than what scares us? If our positive near-term market outlook proves to be overly optimistic, we believe one—or perhaps more than one—of these five things will likely be the culprit.

It’s a Job-Seeker’s Market

More and more people are saying, “I quit!” as competition for qualified workers heats up. The tightening labor market is putting upward pressure on wages, as employers try to hang onto current employees or bring in new staff.