Playbook for a Fed Pivot: Exploring Market Performance
Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate in the first half of 2023.
Midterm Election Results Point to More Mixed Government
The main takeaway from election results currently is likely a mixed government, which we continue to view as market-friendly overall.
Low Bar for Earnings Season Brings Third Quarter Expectations Down
Corporate America has a lot working against it this earnings season. This has brought expectations for third quarter earnings growth down to achievable levels.
Investor Pessimism Still Running High
Recent data show the percentage of individual investors who are bullish about short-term market expectations at very depressed levels.
Pockets of Vulnerability Magnified by Monetary Policy
As Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize the commitment towards restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher.
How Markets Respond to Drawdowns
When markets are down, the natural bias is to sell. But like boxing for Eddie Dupris, everything in investing is backwards.
A Bit More Pessimistic, A Lot More Realistic
The Federal Open Market Committee increased the target rate by 75 basis points to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published summary.
How Much Higher Can Rates Go?
Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years.
Inflation is Easing But Not Enough
Inflation remains the primary concern and for now, the Fed is willing to sacrifice economic growth to get inflation back closer to 2%.
Getting the Jobs Market Back into Balance
The economy is starting to experience a larger labor force as individuals come off the sidelines and rejoin the job market.