Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts
The Fed begins cutting interest rates, stocks as an election predictor, and fiscal policy winners and losers.
Artificial Intelligence: The Antidote to Fed Policy?
While some are drawing parallels between the current period and the late-1990s tech bubble and concluding that a crash may be coming, that’s not our view at all. This market environment is very different.
That Was Quite a Week: A Pivotal One for the Markets
Last week was a pivotal one for markets, with the S&P 500 coming off a 3% weekly decline the week before. In terms of economic data, we got our first …
Volatility Is Back
Volatility has come back into the market as the narrative shifted toward a higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop. Signs of sticky inflation and a resilient economy, including a strong labor market, …
Will Santa Claus or the Grinch Show Up This Year?
‘Tis the season for the Santa Claus Rally! This historically strong seasonal period officially kicks off today and ends on the second trading day of January.
Five Things We’re Thankful For: Fixed Income Edition
There’s no doubt the last few years have been challenging for fixed income investors. And while 2023 was supposed to be the year for bonds, fixed income returns for most …
Strong Seasonals Return After Red October
Even after a red October provided more trick than a treat for stock market investors, we continue into what has historically been one of the strongest periods for stock market …
With Inflation Falling, Why Aren’t Treasury Yields Falling As Well?
For the second month in a row, CPI showed inflationary pressures were falling at a faster pace than economists’ estimates, which is undoubtedly good news. So why haven’t treasury yields followed?
Are Rates Too High? Too Low? Just Right? Depends on Who You Ask
Much has been made of the volatility in the bond markets this year. Over the past few months, Treasury yields have frequently moved 0.20% in a day—something that hasn’t happened in decades.
6 Things to Know About Stocks and Recessions
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In the section summarizing staff projections, to the surprise of some, the staff explicitly forecasted a recession.