Yield Curves Have Steepened, but They’re Still Not Steep
Historically, the difference between the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury yield is close to 1%. The 2Y/10Y spread is only at +0.33% currently.
News
Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts
The Fed begins cutting interest rates, stocks as an election predictor, and fiscal policy winners and losers.
Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn
We are pleased to share Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn, the semi-annual report that recaps where markets and the economy have been over the first half of 2024.
Artificial Intelligence: The Antidote to Fed Policy?
While some are drawing parallels between the current period and the late-1990s tech bubble and concluding that a crash may be coming, that’s not our view at all. This market environment is very different.
How’s It Going? Depends on Who You Ask in a Post-Pandemic Economy
The post-pandemic economy is treating people very differently, creating a headache for central bankers. The extreme differences can often get traced back to living situations, as renters have a very …
That Was Quite a Week: A Pivotal One for the Markets
Last week was a pivotal one for markets, with the S&P 500 coming off a 3% weekly decline the week before. In terms of economic data, we got our first …
Volatility Is Back
Volatility has come back into the market as the narrative shifted toward a higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop. Signs of sticky inflation and a resilient economy, including a strong labor market, …
What to Watch This Earnings Season
First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with several big banks reporting this Friday, including sector bellwether JPMorgan Chase (JPM). This quarter will seem quite similar to the fourth …
IPOs as a Market Tell: What a Recent Uptick Could Mean
The initial public offering (IPO) market allows institutional investors to incorporate the macroeconomic landscape with individual corporate earnings data — and future earnings forecasts — to ascertain a share price …
Outlook for U.S. Economy Continues to Brighten
When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets …