Much has been made of the volatility in the bond markets this year. Over the past few months, Treasury yields have frequently moved 0.20% in a day—something that hasn’t happened in decades.
In this edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we discuss the weakness in small businesses and what that foreshadows in the markets and the economy.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In the section summarizing staff projections, to the surprise of some, the staff explicitly forecasted a recession.
Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks. Who is right?
Volatility has increased this month as banking sector turmoil shook investor sentiment. Sequential bank failures have elevated uncertainty over contagion risk—and with increased uncertainty comes increased fear.
Stock and bond market activity was materially shaken last week as Silicon Valley Bank, the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, fell into FDIC receivership.
As the long-term effects of the pandemic continue to unfold, one trend that has been adopted by multinational companies is to repatriate their supply chains in an effort to avoid future disruptions.
The debt limit is back in focus as the ceiling was breached again on January 19. The amount is set by Congress and has been increased 78 times since 1960.
For most categories, inflation is decidedly past peak. But as we see from today’s report, the pathway back down to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, will be choppy.
Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question. But while this may be the most commonly asked question these days, it may not be the most important or the toughest.
