The sharp rally in U.S. equity markets has created many skeptics, given the size and scope of the advance. As of February 2, the S&P 500 is up 8.9% year to date, marking its best start to a year since 1987.
A year ago today, the federal funds rate was close to zero, CPI reached 7.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yielded 1.79%. What a difference a year makes.
Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. As always, guidance matters more as market participants look forward. The key question is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far.
We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, we have a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary.
There was good news for those saving for retirement in the recent appropriations bill passed to fund the government. The bill included a set of retirement reforms called SECURE 2.0.
It has been a painful week for those investors hoping for a shift toward dovish monetary policy with continuing hawkish shifts from the Fed.
December often starts slow but historically has been a strong month. There are also some potentially supportive seasonal patterns ahead.
Outlook 2023: Finding Balance examines the economy, markets, policy, and includes our economic and market forecasts for 2023.
The economy added 263,000 jobs in November, a decrease from October but a large upside surprise highlighting the continued resilience of labor markets.
Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate in the first half of 2023.
