Trying to Stick the Landing: Can the Stock Market Do It?
Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question. But while this may be the most commonly asked question these days, it may not be the most important or the toughest.
News
Golden Cross—Not Just Another Flash in the Pan
The sharp rally in U.S. equity markets has created many skeptics, given the size and scope of the advance. As of February 2, the S&P 500 is up 8.9% year to date, marking its best start to a year since 1987.
What You Should Know About the Latest Fed Action
A year ago today, the federal funds rate was close to zero, CPI reached 7.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yielded 1.79%. What a difference a year makes.
Q4 Earnings Preview: Pessimism May Be Overdone
Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. As always, guidance matters more as market participants look forward. The key question is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far.
Market, Stock, and Bond Lessons Learned from 2022
We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, we have a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary.
How SECURE 2.0 Makes Saving for Retirement Easier
There was good news for those saving for retirement in the recent appropriations bill passed to fund the government. The bill included a set of retirement reforms called SECURE 2.0.
When Doves Cry
It has been a painful week for those investors hoping for a shift toward dovish monetary policy with continuing hawkish shifts from the Fed.
The Seasonality Trends of December
December often starts slow but historically has been a strong month. There are also some potentially supportive seasonal patterns ahead.
Outlook 2023: Finding Balance
Outlook 2023: Finding Balance examines the economy, markets, policy, and includes our economic and market forecasts for 2023.
Job Market Remains Resilient Despite Higher Rates
The economy added 263,000 jobs in November, a decrease from October but a large upside surprise highlighting the continued resilience of labor markets.