Inflation in March was mostly driven by categories already reverting in April. Still, the cool down period could be painfully slow. Here are the categories that will likely lead the way.
The team at LPL Research reduced U.S. and global GDP forecasts due to Russian commodity disruptions, elevated inflation dynamics, and higher borrowing costs. Still, we expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.7-3.2% in 2022, supported by business investment and consumer services spending in the latter half of this year.
The historic spike in mortgage rates instigated chatter across the country that the housing market is a bubble that will soon pop. However, we don’t believe headwinds from higher rates will fully negate the tailwinds of low inventory, pandemic reshuffling, and positive demographics.
One of the biggest stories over the past few weeks has been the inversion of various points on the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Here are ten things to know about the yield curve.
The U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs in March and February job estimates were revised higher, pushing the 3 month average gain to 562,000. Unemployment ticked down to 3.6 percent, indicating a tightening labor market.
After the rough start to 2022, last week’s move higher was a nice change. By no means is this an all clear signal, but market direction last week could be a clue that better times could be coming.
As painful a start to the year as it has been for equity and core fixed income investors, it doesn’t change, in our view, the argument for more conservative investors to own core bonds in a diversified portfolio.
The Federal Reserve meets this week and in all likelihood will raise short-term interest rates for the first time since emergency levels of monetary accommodation were provided to markets after the COVID-19 shutdowns.
The latest CPI numbers came in around consensus but showed a big 6.6% month-over-month spike in gasoline prices. The longer the Russia-Ukraine war and related commodity crunch continues the more likely headline inflation in March will be over 8% before coming down.
We currently expect the U.S. economy to grow 3.7% in 2022. That is down from the previous 4-4.5% range we predicted but still above trend.
