We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of turbulence this year. How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022.
Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking.
The selloff continued on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 Index down 7.8% in the usually bullish month of April. With three days to go, this could go down as the worst April since a 9.0% drop in 1970.
The team at LPL Research reduced U.S. and global GDP forecasts due to Russian commodity disruptions, elevated inflation dynamics, and higher borrowing costs. Still, we expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.7-3.2% in 2022, supported by business investment and consumer services spending in the latter half of this year.
We currently expect the U.S. economy to grow 3.7% in 2022. That is down from the previous 4-4.5% range we predicted but still above trend.
Fiscal and monetary policy played big roles in the economic recovery in 2021, but we see 2022 playing out as a handoff—from stimulus bridging a pandemic recovery to an economy growing firmly on its own.
Financial markets tend to be relatively quiet the day after Thanksgiving but this year was a notable exception. With the news that a new COVID-19 variant—Omicron—had been discovered and is spreading quickly, prices of risk assets fell and safe-haven assets rallied on Friday.
After an upside inflation surprise in October, it’s clear that peak inflation may still be ahead. Here, we look at five signs to watch for over the next several months that may signal that inflation may be near or at its peak.
Seasonal tailwinds, improving market internals, and clear signs of a peak in the Delta variant all provide potential fuel for equities heading into year-end
More and more people are saying, “I quit!” as competition for qualified workers heats up. The tightening labor market is putting upward pressure on wages, as employers try to hang onto current employees or bring in new staff.
