A New Economic Start in 2021

2020 was a tumultuous year. We likely had the shortest recession ever and began a new economic expansion. Small business and effective COVID-19 vaccines hold the key to continued economic growth in 2021.

US Jobs Recovery Is Slowing

The pace of US jobs growth slowed further in November, adding fuel to what’s been borne out by recent high-frequency data: The economic recovery is increasingly cooling in the face of rising COVID-19 cases and renewed lockdowns.

COVID-19 May Threaten the Recovery

Increasing COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States have brought new restrictions. The stock market doesn’t appear fazed by the recent outbreaks, but underlying economic data is beginning to reflect the latest government and consumer shutdowns.

GDP Bounces Back

GDP expanded 33.1% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, ahead of consensus expectations of 32%, fueled by the continued reopening of businesses and reversing much of the economic fallout stemming from COVID-19-related lockdowns.

Chart Check

We continue to follow high-frequency data to assess whether the US recovery remains on track or if it has been derailed by COVID-19 outbreaks in parts of the country. Here …