Dissecting Recent Bank Failures
Stock and bond market activity was materially shaken last week as Silicon Valley Bank, the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, fell into FDIC receivership.
An Uneven Path to Two Percent
For most categories, inflation is decidedly past peak. But as we see from today’s report, the pathway back down to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, will be choppy.
What You Should Know About the Latest Fed Action
A year ago today, the federal funds rate was close to zero, CPI reached 7.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yielded 1.79%. What a difference a year makes.
Market, Stock, and Bond Lessons Learned from 2022
We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, we have a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary.
When Doves Cry
It has been a painful week for those investors hoping for a shift toward dovish monetary policy with continuing hawkish shifts from the Fed.
Outlook 2023: Finding Balance
Outlook 2023: Finding Balance examines the economy, markets, policy, and includes our economic and market forecasts for 2023.
Playbook for a Fed Pivot: Exploring Market Performance
Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate in the first half of 2023.
Pockets of Vulnerability Magnified by Monetary Policy
As Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize the commitment towards restoring price stability, the dollar marches ever higher.
A Bit More Pessimistic, A Lot More Realistic
The Federal Open Market Committee increased the target rate by 75 basis points to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published summary.
How Much Higher Can Rates Go?
Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years.