When does transitory inflation become non-transitory? That is the question that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to be under increasing pressure to answer after the most recent inflation data surged past economists’ expectations.
Consensus estimates change over time. Seeing how they have been changing can also offer some depth on what’s going on behind the scenes. Today we take a look at five things we can learn from changing U.S. growth expectations.
With Halloween over the weekend, what better to write about this week than what scares us? If our positive near-term market outlook proves to be overly optimistic, we believe one—or perhaps more than one—of these five things will likely be the culprit.
The term stagflation has been circulating increasingly in the financial media. This week we share a current outlook on stagflation, the misery index, and inflation.
Inflation seems to be on the rise, but we believe there are good reasons to think it will be transitory.
Today’s report likely did little to convince the Fed that the labor market is closer to meeting its “substantial further progress” goal on employment, and therefore, all else equal, will not compel them to consider reducing asset purchases sooner rather than later.
We explain why inflation is making headlines and why investors should not be overly concerned.
For nearly a year, investors have been on watch for a potential jump in inflation. Still, this week’s inflation numbers came with some serious sticker shock.
As the COVID-19-related economic weakness that characterized the first half of the year subsides, growth has begun to return as trillions in fiscal stimulus have helped to stabilize consumer spending. …
