What’s Actually Different This Time?
The historic shutdown and reopening of the economy continues to torque financial markets and analyst expectations.
Draining the Lifeblood of the Economy: The Small Business Sector
In this edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we discuss the weakness in small businesses and what that foreshadows in the markets and the economy.
6 Things to Know About Stocks and Recessions
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In the section summarizing staff projections, to the surprise of some, the staff explicitly forecasted a recession.
Trying to Stick the Landing: Can the Stock Market Do It?
Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question. But while this may be the most commonly asked question these days, it may not be the most important or the toughest.
Q4 Earnings Preview: Pessimism May Be Overdone
Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. As always, guidance matters more as market participants look forward. The key question is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far.
Low Bar for Earnings Season Brings Third Quarter Expectations Down
Corporate America has a lot working against it this earnings season. This has brought expectations for third quarter earnings growth down to achievable levels.
A Bit More Pessimistic, A Lot More Realistic
The Federal Open Market Committee increased the target rate by 75 basis points to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published summary.
The Case for a U.S. Recession Weakens
Odds are still perhaps a coin flip or better that a recession may come in the next year. Here we update changing prospects and what they might mean for stocks.
The Second Half: Constructive on Equities, But Not Complacent
While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent.
The Economy Is Slowing But Not Shrinking
Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking.