Midyear Outlook 2023: The Path Toward Stability
Now that we are beyond the midpoint of the investing year, it is a great time to look at where we have been—in preparation for the latter half of the year.
Capital Markets: The Essence of American Capitalism
“Whether it’s originated in garages, dorm rooms, or a parent’s basement, the distinct qualities of the country’s entrepreneurial spirit persevere across sectors, and are fostered by the essence of American capitalism—our capital markets.”
Draining the Lifeblood of the Economy: The Small Business Sector
In this edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we discuss the weakness in small businesses and what that foreshadows in the markets and the economy.
6 Things to Know About Stocks and Recessions
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In the section summarizing staff projections, to the surprise of some, the staff explicitly forecasted a recession.
A Current Look at the “Fear Gauge”
Volatility has increased this month as banking sector turmoil shook investor sentiment. Sequential bank failures have elevated uncertainty over contagion risk—and with increased uncertainty comes increased fear.
Trying to Stick the Landing: Can the Stock Market Do It?
Soft landing or no soft landing, that is the question. But while this may be the most commonly asked question these days, it may not be the most important or the toughest.
Golden Cross—Not Just Another Flash in the Pan
The sharp rally in U.S. equity markets has created many skeptics, given the size and scope of the advance. As of February 2, the S&P 500 is up 8.9% year to date, marking its best start to a year since 1987.
Q4 Earnings Preview: Pessimism May Be Overdone
Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. As always, guidance matters more as market participants look forward. The key question is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far.
Market, Stock, and Bond Lessons Learned from 2022
We believe accountability and modesty are among the keys to success in this business. In striving for those qualities, we have a tradition of starting off a new year with a lessons learned commentary.
When Doves Cry
It has been a painful week for those investors hoping for a shift toward dovish monetary policy with continuing hawkish shifts from the Fed.